Afghanistan NOT independent at this time
Divided between Persian & Mughal control:
- Kabul: Under Mughal control
- Kandahar: Under Persian control
- Both cities shared; no separate Afghan identity

The Reality:

Afghanistan was essentially vassal territories
No separate "Afghanistan" as nation
Part of larger Persian/Mughal sphere
Extremely poor, underdeveloped region

The Opportunity:

With Nadir Shah dead and Persia destabilized
Afghanistan could potentially unify
Abdali saw the opportunity
Had military experience to lead

The Ambition: Building an Afghan Kingdom

Abdali's Plan:

Return to Afghanistan (his home)
Establish own independent kingdom
Unify the fragmented territories

The Financial Need:

Afghanistan is extremely poor (wasteland)
"Nothing developed there, zero resources"
Can't build kingdom without money
Knew exactly where to get it: India
Observed Nadir's looting: understood the model

The Loya Jirga: Afghan Tribal Assembly

The Problem:

Afghanistan divided into many tribes
Each tribe had own headman/leader
Tribes fought each other constantly
No unified leadership

The Solution:

Loya Jirga = Assembly of tribal chiefs
Idea: Select one unified leader
End tribal fighting, create united front
Common goal: Build independent Afghan kingdom

The Process:

Assembly convened with all tribal leaders
Discussion lasted 9 days
Every tribe wanted their headman to be chief
No consensus could be reached
All competing for leadership

The Election: Divine Intervention

The Breakthrough:

One tribal leader stood up on day 9
Made a speech pointing to Ahmad Shah Abdali
Said (approximately):

"Allah has sent Ahmad Khan who is superior to all of you" "Why are you making these pointless discussions?"

The Instant Resolution:

All assembled leaders showed approval
Ahmad Shah Abdali elected unanimously
Became unified leader of all tribes
Based on military credentials, not tribal politics

Why He Was Chosen:

Military experience (10 years under Nadir)
Young but battle-hardened
Had already escaped with 4,000 troops
Had proven leadership ability
Not tied to any single tribe (could be neutral)

The Predictions: Multiple Prophecies

Nizam ul Mulk's Prediction (1739):

During Nadir Shah's 1739 Delhi invasion
Nizam ul Mulk (same guy defeated by Bajirao I) in Delhi
Saw Ahmad Shah Abdali among Nadir's commanders
Said: "This young man has royal aura"
Predicted he would become great leader

Why Nizam Could Tell:

Had ability to "read faces" (Mukhasamudrik)
Could sense leadership qualities from appearance
Told Nadir Shah about Abdali's potential

Nadir Shah's Reaction:

Trusted Nizam ul Mulk's judgment
Believed in his forecasting abilities
Cut Abdali's ear lobes with dagger
Said: "When you become emperor, you'll think of me"
(Note: Some sources say nostrils, others say ear lobes - unclear which)

Three Days Before Assassination:

Someone else told Abdali same thing
"You are destined to be emperor"
Another prophecy fulfilled
Multiple people seeing his destiny

Nizam ul Mulk's Background

Who He Was:

Same Nizam defeated by Bajirao I at Palkhed
Had cannons = heavy, slow, strategic liability
Bajirao forced him to abandon cannons
Surrounded him, cut off water & food
Made him sign humiliating treaty

His Later Career:

Returned to Delhi after Palkhed defeat
Became important courtier in Delhi court
Witnessed Nadir Shah's 1739 looting
Saw destruction and waste
Understood Mughal weakness

His Assessment:

Realized Mughal court was "paper tiger"
Eventually established own kingdom in Hyderabad
Said he'd be loyal to Mughals BUT independent
Foreshadowing broader pattern of Mughal collapse

Key Players

Name	Role	Status
Ahmad Shah Abdali	Afghan commander	Elected tribal leader, age 25
Nadir Shah	Persian emperor	Assassinated, dead
Sahil Khan & Mohammad Khan	Assassins	Killed Nadir Shah
Nizam ul Mulk	Hyderabad ruler	Predicted Abdali's rise
Tribal chiefs	Afghan leaders	United under Abdali

Timeline

Date	Event
1739	Nadir loots Delhi, Abdali observes
1739	Nizam predicts Abdali's greatness
1747	Nadir Shah assassinated
1747	Abdali escapes with Kohinoor, 4,000 troops
1747	Loya Jirga assembles
1747	Abdali elected unified leader

Geographic Context

Key Locations:

Delhi: Where Nadir looted and Nizam saw Abdali
Afghanistan: Tribal territories, now unified
Kabul: Mughal-controlled part of Afghanistan
Kandahar: Persian-controlled part of Afghanistan
Iran: Nadir's empire, now destabilized

Critical Insights

1. The Opportune Moment

Nadir's assassination created power vacuum. Abdali was right place, right time, with right experience. Seized opportunity instantly.

2. Tribal Unification

Nine days of impasse → one speech → unanimous election. Abdali's military credentials + neutrality solved tribal problem.

3. The Prophecies as Foreshadowing

Multiple people predicting Abdali's rise suggests genuine charisma/capability recognition. Not just luck but recognized talent.

4. The Kohinoor Symbol

Abdali capturing Kohinoor = symbolic capture of India's wealth. Not just military symbol but economic statement.

5. The Geographic Advantage

Afghanistan suddenly independent with unified leader, 4,000 troops, and Kohinoor. Ready to pursue Nadir's model: raid India for wealth.

Key Quotes

"Allah has sent Ahmad Khan who is superior to all of you. Why are you making these pointless discussions?"

"This young man has royal aura... has royal symbols or royal future ahead of him"

"When you become emperor, you will think of me" — Nadir's prediction while cutting Abdali

"Ahmad Shah Abdali was noticed for his leadership abilities... maturing as a battle-hardened commander"

The Connection to Marathas

What Comes Next:

Abdali will use Afghanistan as base
Will invade India repeatedly
Will clash with Marathas over control of subcontinent
Will eventually meet Marathas at Panipat (1761)
Nizam ul Mulk's prediction = Abdali becomes major threat

Where We Left Off: Ahmad Shah Abdali has unified Afghanistan, captured the Kohinoor, and established himself as independent ruler at age 25. With 4,000 troops and the knowledge of India's wealth (from observing Nadir), he's ready to execute his own invasion plan. Marathas don't know it yet, but their next major enemy has just been born from the ashes of Nadir Shah's paranoia.

Nadir Shah came to loot India and did. But his paranoia created enemies who killed him. Abdali watched it all: the looting method, the wealth location, the power collapse. When Nadir died, Abdali escaped with 4,000 troops and the Kohinoor diamond. Nine days later, he's elected by tribal assembly to lead unified Afghanistan. At 25, with military experience and a master plan (raid India periodically like Nadir did), he's ready to start building his empire. Marathas are at their peak. They don't know what's coming. A young Afghan is about to change everything.