The Final Moments: Doubts, Deployments & The Threshold of Chaos

Marathi History Book Reading Session Summary

The Immediate Context

The News Arriving:

• 3 AM: Bhau's message "pot is full"
• 3-4 AM: Kashiraj wakes Suja wakes Abdali
• 4-5 AM: Abdali riding, giving orders
• 6+ AM: Forces mobilizing on both sides
• ~7-8 AM: Battle preparations complete

The Political Context (Updated):

• Kashmir tensions (recent terrorist massacre of 26 Indian tourists)
• Selection of victims based on religious test (Kalma recitation, circumcision check)
• Indian military response: strikes on Pakistan-based terrorist organizations
• Lashkar-e-Taiba and other militant groups targeted
• This is all backdrop while Panipat about to explode—3 continents, 3 centuries, 3 different conflicts

Soldiers' Personal Preparation

The Head Covering:

• FETA: traditional headgear worn by soldiers
• Not modern military helmet
• Traditional/cultural headwear

The Turmeric Application:

• Applied to faces as practical medicine (not war paint)
• Turmeric is antibacterial
• Stops blood flow when applied to wounds
• Helps prevent infection
• Every soldier doing this = acknowledgment that wounds expected
• Practical war medicine, common sense preparation

The Symbolism:

"This was the true picture of an army that was willing to fight and go down fighting and die. They understood what the implication of this fight was going to be, because there was no escaping."

This wasn't reluctant army. This was army psychologically prepared for apocalyptic battle.

Abdali's Final Doubts

The Critical Admission:

"Based on Abdali's talking it came across as though he felt that Marathas won't come up for fighting. Instead they will just be doing some strategic maneuver or maybe flee or decide to call it quits."

Abdali expected: maneuvers, feints, maybe withdrawal—NOT actual battle.

What This Reveals:

• Even Abdali wasn't fully convinced battle was inevitable
• Even he hoped they'd negotiate at last minute
• His military setup was cautious, not aggressive
• He was prepared IF battle happens, but didn't fully believe it would

Why Both Sides Doubted:

• 3 months of siege without battle (unprecedented)
• Both armies knew stakes were catastrophic
• Both had tried multiple exit strategies
• Both understood losses would be enormous

The Formation Coordination Challenge

The Afghan Problem:

• Afghan forces: not unified single army
• Abdali's core: his personal forces
• Najib Khan's Rohilas: separate contingent with own commanders
• Suja Uddhawla's forces: allied but independent
• Other groups: regional forces with own agendas

The Coordination Required: Had to position everyone:

• Shah Pasand Khan: left flank of Najib Khan
• Chief of Staff (Shah Wali Khan): center
• Other commanders: assigned specific sectors
• Each contingent given relative position
• Musical instruments played to unify spirit

Why This Mattered:

"Remember this is not a monolithic disciplined army. Different contingents have joined them."

If positions wrong: friendly fire, coordination breakdown, chaos. If positions right: unified force acting together.

This was actual military leadership: understanding different groups, positioning them to work together.

Kashiraj's Detailed Observations

His Access:

• In Abdali's camp as Suja's courtier
• Witnessed command decisions firsthand
• Reported back what he saw
• Historical record depends on his account

What He Saw: Abdali smoking hookah on horseback—image of calm, methodical decision-making, not panicked rushed response.

The Hookah Detail:

• Not modern tobacco hookah
• Contained Aafu (mild opiate) mixed with something
• Gave slight high but not knockout
• Common for Afghan/royal elite
• Habit they couldn't give up
• Even in battle morning: Abdali maintained his routine

The Psychological Point:

• Shows discipline, routine, controlled response
• Not showing panic or desperation
• Methodical military professionalism
• War as management, not emotion

The Maratha vs. Afghan Readiness

Maratha Advantages:

1. Long-range artillery (1-1.5 km range)
2. Cavalry-based force (strong in open field)
3. Morale: soldiers willing to fight and die
4. Discipline: rectangle formation maintained

Maratha Disadvantages:

1. Starvation condition (weakened physically)
2. Haven't fought major battle in months
3. Need to protect 40,000+ non-combatants
4. Heavy reliance on discipline (historical weakness)
5. Cold weather (not prepared for)

Afghan Advantages:

1. Supplies intact (well-fed, fresh)
2. Long deployment (experienced fighters)
3. Unified under experienced general (Abdali)
4. Cohesive force (fighting as unit for months)
5. No non-combatants (lighter, more mobile)

Afghan Disadvantages:

1. Inferior artillery (can't match Maratha 1.5 km range)
2. Soldiers want to go home (morale issue)
3. Different contingents (coordination challenge)
4. Far from home (supply lines stretched)

The Uncertainty on Both Sides

The Strategic Stalemate:

"In both the armies it was problematic to go to battle, full-fledged battle. And none of the armies was totally superior. It was totally undecided how the outcome will play out."

• Neither could steamroll other
• Victory not guaranteed for either side
• Losses would be catastrophic either way
• Outcome: completely unpredictable

Why They'd Avoided Battle for 3 Months:

"Both sides knew it. That is why both these powerful armies had been in front of each other without having a full fledged battle because nobody could predict what will be the final outcome."

Fear of unknown was greater than fear of starvation/attrition.

The Game of Chess:

"They were doing this game of chess to get someone to slip up or maybe make the battle lopsided if possible by exposing them."

Both trying to:

• Get opponent to make mistake
• Expose weakness without committing
• Find diplomatic solution
• Avoid commitment to total war

The Final Moments of Choice

Kashiraj's Role:

• Last diplomatic messenger
• Carried Bhau's final "pot is full" message
• Woke Suja at 3 AM
• Gave signal: negotiation window closing

Abdali's Response:

• Literal and psychological: got on horse
• Gave orders to prepare
• Positioned contingents
• Played music to encourage troops
• Accepted: battle is now happening

Bhau's Perspective:

• Hoped even as forces moved
• Held out hope Suja could negotiate
• Sent final message with urgency
• Prepared for war but prayed for peace

The Paradox:

• Both generals hoping battle wouldn't happen
• Both generals preparing for battle to happen
• Both understanding if it happens, catastrophic
• Both accepting it might be unavoidable

The Bakhar Account (Unreliable)

The Conflicting Report: From Bhau's Bakhar (historical chronicle):

"Abdali sent message to Bhau: today we should do a truce. Bhau says: let me consult and then we will reach the truce."

Why Take With Grain of Salt:

• Bakhars are historical narratives, not official documents
• Biased toward their subject
• Not always reliable
• This account suggests Abdali proposed peace at last minute
• But other sources don't corroborate

The Interpretation: Could mean:

1. Abdali did propose peace (and it was rejected)
2. Bhau wanted to appear as peacekeeper (narrative control)
3. Miscommunication or misinterpretation in translation
4. Bakhar romanticizing the moment

Either way: shows last-minute diplomacy attempts (even if unclear exactly what was said).

The Scale of What's About to Happen

The Numbers Again:

• Maratha side: 125,000 total (75,000 fighting)
• Afghan side: ~100,000
• Total: ~200,000+ people
• Largest 18th-century battle
• Possibly largest battle in Indian history to that point

The Scope:

• Not just military units: families, pilgrims, merchants
• Rectangle formation: first time attempted at this scale with this many non-combatants
• Discipline required: unprecedented for Indian armies
• Casualties: likely to be catastrophic

The Moment:

• January 14, 1761
• Dawn breaking over Panipat plain
• 200,000+ people preparing for contact
• No clear victor expected
• No one fully ready
• No one fully willing
• But no way to avoid it anymore

Timeline (Final 4 Hours)

Key Insights

Mutual Hesitation: Abdali didn't think Marathas would fight. Marathas hoped Afghans would let them go. Both wrong. Both surprised at what was actually about to happen.

Uncertainty as Weapon: Fear of unknown kept both sides from attacking for 3 months. Now that moment ending—but fear of unknown still there. Both know if battle happens, it could go either way.

The Leadership Styles:

• Bhau: prays for peace even as soldiers prepare for war
• Abdali: calm, methodical, smokes hookah while positioning troops
• Both understanding magnitude of moment
• Both approaching it differently (emotion vs. discipline)

The Soldier's Perspective: Applying turmeric, checking horses, eating breakfast—regular soldiers doing practical things while generals debate strategy. Soldiers probably knew battle was inevitable. Generals still hoping it wasn't.

The Diplomatic Breakdown: Even at 3 AM, Bhau trying to use Kashiraj/Suja as diplomatic channel. By 4 AM, Abdali responding with military preparations. Window for negotiation literally closing in real time.

Where We Left Off: Dawn of January 14, 1761. Both sides mobilized. Both sides' careful plans about to meet reality. Bhau still hoping for peace via Kashiraj. Abdali positioning contingents and preparing for war. Rectangle forming. Afghan forces coordinating. The threshold is here. In minutes to hours, first contact will determine if this is limited skirmishing (as both planned) or apocalyptic battle (as both feared).

At dawn on January 14, 1761, two armies that had been staring at each other for three months finally had to make the choice they'd been avoiding. Bhau sent one last message hoping for peace. Abdali put on his hookah and prepared for war. Soldiers applied turmeric and checked horses. Kashiraj watched it all happen, recording it for history. And somewhere between the Maratha rectangle forming and the Afghan contingents coordinating, the point of no return was crossed. In a few hours, the largest battle of the 18th century would begin. And everyone—generals and soldiers alike—knew that one way or another, nothing would be the same after.