"You have to take into consideration what is happening in the North and act accordingly. But we have to tell you what is going on for sure. It is our duty."

The Tone:

Not being yes men
Being straight with him
Honest assessment
Duty to inform
Good counsel

The Timing: April-May 1757

Abdali Leaves, Marathas Arrive

The Sequence:

Time	Event
April 1757	Abdali went back to Afghanistan
May 1757	Marathas arrived in Agra

Why They Waited:

Probably busy in Rajasthan collecting tributes
Waited until Abdali was well on his way to Afghanistan
Didn't want to be in Agra while Abdali was there
Purposefully came after the fact

The Calculation:

Knew their numbers and resources insufficient
Didn't want to butt heads with him
If they had the force, would have gone much earlier
Avoided confrontation intentionally
Raghunath Rao experienced commander
Understood the politics of North
Wise decision not to fight losing battle

Shuja-ud-Daulah: The Awadh Problem

Abdali's Instructions

What Happened:

Shuja-ud-Daulah = Awadh Nawab (son of Safdar Jung)
As per Abdali's instructions
Bangash and other people opened front against him

Why:

He didn't like him
Or he didn't cooperate with Abdali
Now being targeted
Strategizing against him

Sakharam Bapu Arrives (June 1757)

The Diplomat from Pune

Who He Was:

One of the diplomats from Pune
Worked for Nanasaheb Peshwa

What He Did:

Reached near Delhi in June 1757
Waited for Raghunath Rao's arrival
Not ambushing
Just meeting under good conditions
Coordinating arrival

Manaji Paigude: Securing Delhi

The Cannons at the Gates

What He Did:

Manaji Paigude = Maratha commander
Put cannons at some gates of Delhi

Why Gates Mattered:

Delhi during Mughal period had several gates
Gated city with walls
Only a few entry points

The Strategy:

Should not be easy to get into inner city
If outside army tries to come
Can be withheld outside
Delhi not protected by natural mountain
Needed strategic defense

The Buffer:

Gates created buffer zone
Didn't want enemy reaching gates of Red Fort
Enemy waits at gates of Delhi (outer)
Defense in depth

Today:

Old Delhi was smaller area to encircle
Now if you go to Delhi, all gates removed
But once upon a time, critical defense

The Imperial Dilemma

Shuja-ud-Daulah's Proposal

What He Asked:

"Shuja-ud-Daulah asked Marathas to do: fight with the Mughal Emperor."

The Maratha Response:

Thought it's not right to fight emperor
He's the central power
That's who they've been hired to protect
And that too for king of a province (vassal)?
Doesn't seem right to switch allegiance

The Problem with Shuja:

He was literally a Vassal king
On behalf of the Mughals
Should have had loyalty toward Mughal Emperor
That's how arrangements were struck up
But instead trying to resist him
Things were that bad now
Willing to challenge even the emperor

Why Marathas Refused

The 1752 Treaty

The Backstory:

Marathas had struck a deal with Mughal Emperor
Just five years ago in 1752
Got victories on behalf of emperor
Received certain provinces and their tax income

The Calculation:

Didn't want to go back on that
Didn't want to jeopardize gains
Would lose everything they had gained
Provinces, tax income, all of it

The Strategic Choice:

Shuja-ud-Daulah only nabab of smaller kingdom
Didn't have any loyalty to him
Emperor = bigger prize
Shuja = not worth it

The Decision:

"We are not going to get into this mess"
Stay out of internal power struggle
Maintain alliance with emperor

Timeline

Date	Event
October 1756	Raghunath Rao departs from Pune for second northern campaign
February 6, 1757	Malhar Rao Holkar joins Raghunath Rao at Indore
February 1757	At same time: Abdali destroying Mathura (RR too far away)
1756-1757	Raghunath Rao in Rajasthan collecting tributes
April 1757	Abdali departs India (cholera, troops sick)
April 30, 1757	Raja Keshav Rai writes detailed letter to Peshwa
May 1757	Marathas arrive in Agra (after Abdali gone)
June 1757	Sakharam Bapu reaches near Delhi
June 1757	Manaji Paigude puts cannons at Delhi gates

Key Players

Name	Role	Position
Raghunath Rao	Peshwa's brother	Leading second northern campaign
Malhar Rao Holkar	Maratha commander	Joined at Indore with troops
Raja Keshav Rai	Mughal court official (7 generations)	Well-wisher of Marathas, detailed reports
Antaji Mankeshwar	Maratha officer	Fought Abdali with insufficient forces
Jawahar Singh	Surajmal's son	Fought Abdali with insufficient forces
Najib Khan	Former wazir's servant	Elevated to Mir Bakshi by Abdali
Abdali	Afghan invader	Leaving due to cholera, troops sick
Shuja-ud-Daulah	Awadh Nawab	Wanted Marathas to fight emperor
Sakharam Bapu	Pune diplomat	Arrived Delhi June 1757
Manaji Paigude	Maratha commander	Put cannons at Delhi gates
Mughal Emperor	Nominal ruler	Dependent on Najib Khan, no forces

Geography

The Route:

Pune → Indore (cross Narmada) → Rajasthan (detour for tributes) → Agra → Delhi

Key Locations:

Indore - where Holkar joined Raghunath Rao
Rajasthan - where they collected tributes (west)
Mathura - where Abdali was massacring (they were too far away)
Agra - where they arrived in May 1757
Delhi - ultimate target, gated city

The Distance Problem:

Hundreds of miles from Indore to Mathura
Too far to help during massacre
By time they could reach, too late

Key Themes

Strategic Avoidance - Wait out Abdali rather than fight him
The Resource Problem - Never enough forces/money
Diplomatic Mistakes - Alienating potential allies
The Tribute Mission - Money always the primary concern
Seema Ullanghan Tradition - Formal war season timing
The Pathan Threat - Taking over North India
Najib Khan's Rise - From servant to Mir Bakshi
Wise Counsel - Keshav Rai's honest assessments
The Treaty Trap - Can't betray 1752 agreement
Cholera Saves India - Natural disaster drives Abdali out
Defensive Preparations - Cannons at gates
The Vassal Problem - Shuja wants them to fight emperor

Critical Insights

The Strategic Avoidance Decision

Why Raghunath Rao Avoided Abdali:

Second time north - experienced now
Understood politics of the region
Knew his resources insufficient
Wise enough not to fight losing battle
Better to stay alive and wait

The Cost:

Couldn't help during Mathura massacre
Hundreds of miles away in Rajasthan
Collecting tributes while people died
Pragmatic but tragic

The Justification:

If they fought and lost
No Maratha presence in North at all
Better to preserve forces
Live to fight another day
Strategic retreat vs. suicidal charge

The Seema Ullanghan Tradition

Why October:

Monsoon over - rivers crossable
Harvest done - farmers available (60% of army)
Ground dry - not muddy
Dasara celebrated - traditional timing

The Military Calendar:

October-April - fighting season
May-September - monsoon, can't campaign
Agricultural cycle dictates war
Part-time army needs farmers free

Raja Keshav Rai: The Inside Man

Why He Mattered:

Seven generations in Mughal court
Insider knowledge
Detailed insight into politics
Well-wisher of Marathas (not just informant)
Honest assessment - not yes man

His Value:

Told them truth about Pathan threat
Warned about Najib Khan's power
Explained Mughal weakness
Strategic intelligence from the inside
"It's our duty to tell you" - commitment to truth

The Najib Khan Elevation

The Transformation:

From servant of wazir
To nobody
To Mir Bakshi (high position)
Totally dependent emperor on him

How It Happened:

Invited Abdali to Delhi
Very close confidant of Abdali
Abdali forced emperor to appoint him
Reward for loyalty and conspiracy

The Result:

15,000-20,000 troops
Emperor has no forces of his own
Real power in Najib's hands
Puppet master situation

The Pathan Takeover

The Warning:

No area without Pathans anymore
Abdali's forces present
Rohilla settlers (Najib Khan's people)
Even Lahore, Multan (Punjab) full of them
Taking over North India

Why They Hate Hindus:

Jihadi mentality
See North India as Muslim territory
Religious extremism
Not just political, ideological war

The Threat:

"We have to control the Pathan forces... otherwise they will take over most of North India."

The Shuja-ud-Daulah Dilemma

His Proposal:

Fight the Mughal Emperor for me
I'm the Awadh Nawab
Help me against the center

Why Marathas Refused:

Not right to fight central power
Hired to protect emperor, not fight him
Just made treaty in 1752 (5 years ago)
Would lose all gains (provinces, taxes)
Shuja only vassal king (small kingdom)
No loyalty owed to him
Emperor = bigger prize

The Irony:

Shuja should be loyal to emperor
That's the arrangement
But things so bad now
Even vassals challenging emperor
Shows total collapse of authority

The Gates of Delhi

Why They Mattered:

Delhi not naturally protected (no mountains)
Needed artificial defenses
Walls and gates created
Few entry points only
Buffer zone strategy

The Defense:

Enemy stopped at outer gates
Keeps them away from Red Fort
Can hold them outside
Defense in depth
Manaji Paigude: cannons at gates

Today:

Gates all removed now
Old Delhi was smaller, enclosed area
Modern Delhi much larger
But historically, gates critical

The Tribute Problem

Why They Went to Rajasthan:

Need money constantly
Armies cost money
Salaries, equipment, supplies
Tributes = income source
Have to collect or go broke

The Tragedy:

While in Rajasthan collecting money
Mathura being massacred
Hundreds of miles away
Money-focused while people dying
Pragmatic but morally costly

The Dilemma:

Can't campaign without money
Can't get money without campaigning
Rock and hard place
Desperate situation
Unpopular result

The 1752 Treaty Anchor

What They Got:

Certain provinces
Their tax income
Legal recognition
Fighting on behalf of emperor

Why It Matters:

Just five years ago
Still recent agreement
Can't betray it now
Would lose everything
Foundation of position in North

The Constraint:

Can't fight against emperor
Locked into central alliance
Limits flexibility
But provides legitimacy

Foreshadowing

What This Sets Up:

Najib Khan's power - now Mir Bakshi, 15-20k troops
Pathan threat - taking over everywhere
Emperor weakness - dependent on Najib, no forces
Cholera drove Abdali out - not military defeat
Raghunath Rao learning - second campaign, more experienced
Keshav Rai's warnings - Pathan takeover coming
Gates being fortified - preparing for siege?
Alliance with emperor - locked in due to 1752 treaty
Shuja-ud-Daulah hostile - refused his proposal
Money still problem - always need more
Arrived after Abdali left - still avoiding confrontation

The Questions:

Will they confront Najib Khan?
Can they control the Pathan spread?
Will Shuja-ud-Daulah become enemy?
When will Abdali return?
Will they be ready next time?
Can they establish permanent presence?

October 1756 - May 1757: Raghunath Rao leads his second campaign north after Dasara. Joins with Holkar at Indore in February. But while they're in Rajasthan collecting tributes, Abdali is massacring Mathura - hundreds of miles away, too far to help. Cholera drives Abdali out in April. Marathas arrive in Agra in May, purposefully after he's gone - don't have the forces to face him. Raja Keshav Rai sends detailed reports: "Pathans everywhere. Najib Khan elevated from wazir's servant to Mir Bakshi. Has 15-20k troops. Emperor totally dependent on him. They're taking over North India. You have to stop them." Shuja-ud-Daulah wants Marathas to fight the emperor. They refuse - "Not right. We have a treaty from 1752. We fight for the emperor, not against him. You're just a vassal." Sakharam Bapu arrives in Delhi in June. Manaji Paigude puts cannons at the gates. The stage is set. Najib Khan is powerful. The Pathans are spreading. And the Marathas are locked into their alliance with a powerless emperor.