The Ally Crisis & Loan Refusals (April-May 1760)

Marathi History Book Reading Session Summary

The Challenge of Finding Allies

The Situation

The Reality:

"It was not easy to find allies in the north."

Why:

• Lot of parties agreed not because of his intervention
• Or his reasons
• But people earlier had created those situations
• Because: this was his first time in north

How Bhau Dealt with the Challenges

His Strategy

The Approach:

"He dealt with this challenge of signing up allies, shortage of manpower and shortage of funds in the sense that he told his people in the north to create conditions and situations where how these issues can be solved."

What He Did:

• Asked for possible solutions
• Gave directions
• Delegated problem-solving
• To people who knew north better

The Double Demand on Govind Pant Bundele

Both Money and Bridge

The Money Shortage Issue:

• Because of money shortage
• Asked Bundeli
• Demanded him to provide:
  1. Boats or boat bridge (along Yamuna River) - already asked
  2. Money - make provision for the money

The Clarification:

• Building bridge: one thing
• But just to take care of all finances too
• Along with boats/boat bridge
• Also: "I need money funds"
• "Just work on it generally"

Why Him:

• He was his main man
• He was a revenue officer
• His job

Nana Sahib's Support Letters

The Directive

What Nana Sahib Did:

• Sent letters to:
  • Govind Pant
  • All the Subhidars (provincial administrators)
• Help Bahu in every way possible
• In addition to money issues
• Meaning: providing him funds as well
• But also just other support

The Nizam Request: Join the Campaign

The Logic

What Nana Sahib Did:

• Insisted with Nizam
• To go with Bahu to the north

The Reasoning:

"Here is the crux. Nizam was the kind of Mughal emperor's ally or his henchman in the south."

Nizam's Claim:

• Telling other people: "I'm the protector of Mughal empire in the south"
• Even though: by then becoming more independent
• During Aurangzeb or right after
• Nizam said: "I'm your vassal, I'm part of you"
• But slowly: as Mughal emperor weakening
• Started asserting independence from Mughal Emperor

But Still:

• Still allied with Mughal emperor by definition
• Kind of created out of extension of him

The Argument

Nana Sahib's Logic:

• Marathas going to north technically
• Because of 1752 treaty with Mughal emperor
• To support and protect Mughal empire
• That is why going north
• Not because they thought [other reasons]

Therefore:

"Technically, Nizam should accompany because he also was working towards as an ally of, you know, like Vasaal of the Mughal emperor. So his job was to support Mughal emperor."

The Honor Question:

"This was just a question of honor, you have to support your Mughal."

Nizam's Refusal

The Real Reason

Why He Wouldn't Go:

"Basically, Nizam worked on the principle of, Marathas are Hindus, so I'm not going to help them. I'm going to work. I mean, he was a Muslim Jihadi."

His Calculation:

• Not going to help Marathas
• If Marathas defeated or destroyed by Abdali
• So much better
• Wasn't going to fight for their sake

The Response:

• Politely declined
• Said: "No, I have blah, blah, blah to do"
• But would not have gone
• It was in his interest that Marathas are destroyed
• If at all possible
• Not going to help
• No way

The Ghoshla of Nagpur: Didn't Happen

The Possibility

Who He Was:

• From Nagpur
• Had his own little independent kingdom
• Worked with the Peshwa
• Part of Maratha Empire actually
• Like a separate wing

The Connection:

• Shivaji's last name also was Ghoshla
• So they were kind of still allied

The Outcome:

• He possibly could have joined
• But ultimately it didn't happen
• Were maybe busy
• Or didn't have enough resources

The Loan Crisis: When Abdali Stays

The Turning Point

When It Became Apparent:

"When it became apparent to the moneylenders and all those people that Abdali is likely to stay in India over the summer."

The Refusal

What Happened:

"So they declined to give big loans to the Maratha army or Nalasaheb Peshwa."

Why:

• Didn't want to be potentially backing the loser
• Or if Abdali comes to them
• Says "give me the money"
• And they gave it all to Marathas
• Problem

The Math of the Loans

If Abdali Left

The Calculation:

• If Abdali was not going to stay
• Then Maratha army under Sadashiv Rao Bhau
• Winning over [opponents]
• Success rate goes high up

Why:

• If Abdali going to go back
• Marathas going to go to north
• Get rid of Rohilas
• Get rid of every single opponent
• Every Jihadi force out there
• More likely to get return on investment
• No big opposition

The Size Factor:

• Maratha force was very, very big
• Any Rohilas would have been murdered in few days
• Finished
• Over
• They just didn't stand a chance

If Abdali Stays

The New Calculation:

• But if Abdali going to be principal opponent
• Then you don't know what will happen
• Maybe Marathas will win
• Or maybe they will lose
• Then it becomes 50-50

The Risk:

• Don't want to lose money on that gamble

The Realization:

"Once they realized that Abdali is staying for this monsoon or summer, they didn't want no part in funding the Marathas."

The Wait-and-See Strategy

What Moneylenders Did

The Decision:

"So they rather decided to wait on the fence and see who wins this battle because this was going to be a big battle."

The Calculation:

• No risk (wait)
• Too risky (lend now)

The Pattern:

• Like Rajputs saying same thing
• Like Suraj Mal saying
• "Sit on throne in Delhi" (first)
• They were all saying
• "I need to know which side is going to win"

The Reality:

"And nobody knew for sure unless until the war takes place or the battle takes place."

The Victor Problem

The Strategy

What They Decided:

"Because they were going to go on the side of the victor, the shortage of money problem was never solved in the Maratha camp."

The Terms:

• Jeta = the victor
• Jinkne = to win
• Going to go with Jeta (victor)

The Problem:

• Now don't know who victor will be
• Very close
• Who could tell
• Knew it was epic battle
• Whatever happens: not going to be small
• Enormous violence
• Enormous bloodshed

The March Timeline

The Progress

April 14:

• Started from Udgir (or Patadur)

March 18:

• Reached Sindhakaid
• Just four days later

April 4:

• Passes Burhanpur (or Barhanpur)

April 12:

• Crosses Narmada
• Eight days later from Burhanpur

April 18:

• Passes [location]

April 24:

• Goes to Sehore

April 28:

• Goes to Bedsia

The Burhanpur Gateway

The Importance

Historical Significance:

• Before Aurangzeb came to Dakhan
• Burhanpur was the area up to which
• Mughals could keep coming
• Without any issue at all

Why:

• Then there was Malik south of there
• Then on they had to be careful

Aurangzeb's Change:

• Because very determined personality
• Came all the way to Aurangabad
• Which is south of Burhanpur
• So he kind of broke through for first time
• Made Aurangabad capital of Mughal empire in south

After Aurangzeb:

• During his reign
• Aurangabad (quite south of Burhanpur)
• Became center of Mughal power
• Burhanpur was not a problem
• But originally: Burhanpur was gateway to Dakhan
• Aurangzeb basically broke through

The Narmada Crossing: Easy in Summer

The Question

The Point to Understand:

• Narmada crossed just within matter of weeks
• Narmada is fairly broad and big river
• So how did he do it?

The Answer

The Timing:

"Remember, this was the middle of summer. So the water was kind of lying low. If it was Mansoon, it would be another story."

Why It Worked:

• Right time of year
• His army was massive
• But because summertime
• Probably water very shallow
• Not a problem to cross it

The Implication:

"But now see what is happening to him once Mansoon hit."

The Contrast:

• How Mansoon and summer river crossings are different
• Summer: easy
• Monsoon: disaster

The Loan Collection

At Srirang

What He Collected:

• Cashed four lakhs (400,000) worth of loans
• Vathavne = to cash
• Basically a loan you can collect

Nana Fadnavis: The Survivor

Who He Was

His Role:

• Administrative personality
• Not a fighter per se
• Can call: accountant come diplomat come lawyer
• Something like that

His Fate:

"By the way, Nana Fadnavis came back from Panipat battle. He survived."

The Miracle:

• He somehow could come back
• That was a miracle in itself
• Very few people came back alive
• Because even if [survived battle]
• Have to come all the way south
• Very impressive

Nana Fadnavis's Letter from Srirang

The Contact Report

What He Wrote:

"He wrote back to Peshwa that we have a contact at Suja Uddhavla."

What This Meant:

• There is a way
• Or a medium
• Through which we can start conversation with Suja-ud-Daula

Why It Matters:

• If you want to talk to somebody
• Who is relatively unknown to you
• You need a middle man
• Suja is not super close with them
• Need an intermediary
• And he says: "We have somebody like that"

The Abdali Leaving Rumor

The False Hope

What Nana Fadnavis Said:

• Pathan = referring to Abdali
• Pathan is a tribe in Afghanistan
• Afghanistan is tribal society even today
• Vadanta = a rumor

The Message:

"There is a rumor that Abdali who belongs to the Pathan tribe, there is a rumor that he is going to go back in the summer months."

The Intent:

• Painting a positive picture
• Saying: maybe there won't be any battle at all

The Reality:

"But that was wrong. He just probably got the wrong information or he just, I don't know. But it was not what Abdali was planning anyway."

The Persistent Rumor

The Pattern

What Kept Happening:

"So this kind of references were coming again and again in the correspondence."

The Reality:

• Nobody really knew
• What is intention of Abdali
• Whether he wanted to stick around in summer months
• Or going to go back

The Hope:

• Kind of depending on rumors
• That he's going to go back
• In summer months

The Truth:

"That was not really happening. They weren't going to get that lucky."

Key Players

Timeline

Geographic Context

The Route:

• Udgir/Patadur → starting point
• Sindhakaid → 4 days away
• Burhanpur → gateway to Dakhan historically
• Narmada River → crossed in summer (easy)
• Sehore → continuing north
• Bedsia → continuing north
• Srirang → where cashed 400k loans

Historical Geography:

• Burhanpur → originally Mughal limit
• Aurangabad → Aurangzeb broke through, made capital
• Dakhan/Deccan → south of Burhanpur

Financial Details

Loans Cashed:

• 400,000 rupees at Srirang
• Vathavne = to cash

Loans Refused:

• Moneylenders declined "big loans"
• Once Abdali staying became apparent
• Too risky
• 50-50 chance
• Would rather wait and see

The Math:

• If Abdali left: Marathas sure win (would lend)
• If Abdali stays: 50-50 (won't lend)
• Will go with victor after battle
• No risk strategy

Major Themes

1. The First-Timer Disadvantage

The Reality:

"This was his first time in north."

The Problems:

• Not easy to find allies
• Situations created by others earlier
• Not because of his intervention
• Inherited problems
• No relationships
• No knowledge

The Delegation:

• Told people in north
• Create solutions
• Because they know better
• He doesn't

2. The Double Burden on Govind Pant

What He's Asked:

1. Build boat bridge (major engineering)
2. Solve money problem (major finance)

The Reality:

• Two critical tasks
• Both must succeed
• Campaign depends on both
• All on one 60+ year old man
• Revenue officer
• Not miracle worker

The Pressure:

• Bhau's "main man"
• Everything depends on him
• Bridge or no advance
• Money or no campaign
• Too much on one person

3. The Nizam Honor Trap

The Logic:

• Nizam is Mughal vassal
• Marathas protecting Mughal empire
• Therefore: Nizam should join
• Question of honor

The Reality:

• Nizam is Muslim Jihadi
• Marathas are Hindu
• Not going to help
• Wants them destroyed
• Politely declines
• Never going

The Contrast:

• What should happen (honor)
• What actually happens (religion)
• Honor < ideology
• Logic doesn't matter
• Religious identity wins

4. The 50-50 Calculation

Before Abdali Stays:

• Marathas vs Rohilas only
• Marathas huge force
• Would murder them in days
• Sure win
• Safe to lend

After Abdali Stays:

• Marathas vs Abdali
• Don't know what happens
• 50-50
• Too risky
• Won't lend

The Impact:

• Money dries up
• Shortage never solved
• Because of uncertainty
• Because of Abdali
• Financial strategy collapses

5. The Wait-and-See Conspiracy

Who's Doing It:

• Moneylenders
• Rajputs
• Suraj Mal (kind of)
• Everyone

The Strategy:

• Wait on fence
• See who wins
• Then join victor
• No risk

The Problem for Marathas:

• No allies now
• No money now
• When need it most
• Before battle
• Everyone waiting
• To see outcome

The Irony:

• Waiting to see who wins
• But their waiting affects who wins
• By not supporting
• They make Maratha loss more likely
• Self-fulfilling prophecy

6. The Summer Window

The Advantage:

• Narmada crossed easily
• Matter of weeks
• Water low
• Shallow
• No problem

The Timing:

• Middle of summer
• Right time of year
• If monsoon: disaster
• But summer: easy

The Foreshadowing:

"But now see what is happening to him once Mansoon hit."

The Pattern:

• Summer crossings: easy
• Monsoon crossings: impossible
• Took one month for Gambhir (monsoon)
• Took weeks for Narmada (summer)
• Season matters hugely

7. The Epic Battle Everyone Knows

The Consensus:

• Everyone knew
• Epic battle coming
• Enormous violence
• Enormous bloodshed
• Not going to be small

The Preparation:

• Moneylenders: wait
• Allies: wait
• Everyone: wait
• See who survives
• Then decide

The Inevitability:

• Can't avoid it
• Can't negotiate it
• Going to happen
• Going to be massive
• Everyone preparing
• By staying out

8. The Rumor Dependency

The Pattern:

• References coming again and again
• In correspondence
• Abdali might leave
• Maybe no battle
• False hope

The Reality:

• Wrong information
• Or wishful thinking
• Not Abdali's plan
• He's staying
• But rumors persist

The Danger:

• Planning based on rumors
• Not reality
• Hoping for miracle
• Instead of preparing for war
• Dangerous optimism

9. The Contact with Suja

What Nana Fadnavis Reports:

• Have contact/intermediary
• With Suja-ud-Daula
• Can start conversation
• Through middle man

Why It Matters:

• Suja already joined Abdali
• But not super close with him
• Maybe can be flipped
• Or at least negotiated with
• Through back channel

The Hope:

• Not all lost
• Still possibilities
• Still diplomatic options
• Before battle
• Maybe can change outcome

10. The Survivor's Report

Nana Fadnavis:

• Survived Panipat
• Miracle
• Very few came back
• Had to make it all way south
• Very impressive

His Role:

• Administrator
• Not fighter
• Accountant/diplomat/lawyer type
• Sent this letter

The Implication:

• Administrative types survive
• By not being in thick of battle
• By being smart
• By escaping when needed
• Fighters die
• Administrators live

Critical Insights

The Ally Desert

The Reality:

"It was not easy to find allies in the north."

Why:

• First time there
• No relationships
• Inherited bad situations
• Created by Shinde/Holkar
• Rajputs alienated
• Muslims hostile
• Everyone waiting

The Delegation:

• Bhau doesn't know north
• So tells northerners
• "Create solutions"
• "How to solve these issues"
• Because he can't

The Problem:

• But they don't have solutions either
• No one wants to commit
• Until battle decided
• Catch-22
• Need allies to win
• But get allies only if win

The Govind Pant Impossibility

The Tasks:

1. Build boat bridge over Yamuna
   • Major engineering
   • Need boats
   • Need construction
   • Need time
   • Under threat
2. Solve money problem
   • Need to collect revenue
   • From hostile areas
   • Under time pressure
   • While moving

The Man:

• 60+ years old
• Revenue officer
• Not engineer
• Not magician
• Just administrator

The Math:

• Two impossible tasks
• One person
• Both critical
• Both must succeed
• Or campaign fails
• Unrealistic expectations

The Honor vs Reality Schism

The Honor Argument:

• Nizam is Mughal vassal
• Marathas protecting Mughals
• 1752 treaty
• Therefore: Nizam should join
• Matter of honor
• Support your emperor

The Reality Check:

• Nizam is Muslim
• Marathas are Hindu
• He's a Jihadi
• Wants them destroyed
• Religion > treaties
• Ideology > honor

The Pattern:

• Appealing to honor
• When religion matters more
• Appealing to treaties
• When identity matters more
• Logic fails
• Because wrong framework

The Loan Mathematics

The Calculation Before:

• Marathas vs Rohilas
• Rohilas: weak
• Marathas: 70,000+ soldiers
• Would be "murdered in days"
• "Finished"
• "Over"
• Safe bet
• Would lend

The Calculation After:

• Marathas vs Abdali
• Abdali: proven force
• Marathas: uncertain
• 50-50 outcome
• "Don't want to lose money on that gamble"
• Too risky
• Won't lend

The Swing:

• From sure thing
• To coin flip
• Just by Abdali staying
• Changes entire financial picture
• No more loans
• Shortage permanent

The Fence-Sitting Strategy

Everyone Doing It:

• Moneylenders: "wait and see"
• Rajputs: "wait and see"
• Suraj Mal: "sit on throne first"
• Pattern

The Logic:

• Why risk now?
• Battle decides everything
• Join victor after
• No risk
• Maximum gain

For Marathas:

• Need support now
• Before battle
• That's when it matters
• After battle: too late

The Irony:

• Everyone waiting for outcome
• But their waiting affects outcome
• By not supporting Marathas
• Make Maratha defeat more likely
• Then join Abdali after
• Self-fulfilling

The Summer Mirage

The Easy Crossing:

• Narmada: "matter of weeks"
• Summer: water low
• Shallow
• No problem

The False Confidence:

• Looks easy
• Because right season
• But Gambhir took one month (monsoon)
• Seasonal
• Not permanent

The Foreshadowing:

"But now see what is happening to him once Mansoon hit."

The Reality:

• Summer advantage temporary
• Monsoon coming
• Will reverse everything
• Rivers will flood
• Crossing impossible
• Temporary success

The Epic Battle Consensus

What Everyone Knew:

• Going to be epic
• Enormous violence
• Enormous bloodshed
• Not small skirmish
• Decisive battle

The Response:

• Moneylenders: wait
• Allies: wait
• Everyone: stay out
• Watch from distance
• Join winner after

The Implication:

• Battle so big
• So decisive
• So violent
• Better to avoid
• Better to wait
• Let them destroy each other
• Pick up pieces after

The Rumor Addiction

The Pattern:

• "Again and again"
• In correspondence
• Abdali might leave
• Maybe no battle
• Hope springs eternal

The Psychology:

• Wanting it to be true
• So believing rumors
• Despite evidence
• Despite pattern change
• Wishful thinking

The Danger:

• Planning based on hope
• Not reality
• Not preparing for actual war
• Preparing for hoped-for peace
• Setting up for shock
• When battle comes

The Intermediary Hope

The Contact:

• With Suja-ud-Daula
• Through middleman
• Can start conversation
• Diplomatic channel

The Dream:

• Maybe flip him
• Back to Maratha side
• Or at least neutralize
• Reduce Abdali's force
• Change balance

The Reality:

• Suja already committed
• Under Abdali's eye
• Trapped in his camp
• Can't leave
• Too late
• But hope persists

The Administrator Survives

The Pattern:

• Nana Fadnavis: survives
• Administrative type
• Not fighter
• Accountant/diplomat
• Lives through Panipat

The Lesson:

• Fighters die
• Heroes die
• Commanders die
• Administrators survive
• By not being in front
• By escaping smartly
• Survival > glory

The Application:

• Those who survive tell story
• Those who die don't
• History written by survivors
• Usually not the heroes

What's Coming

The Situation:

• Can't find allies (first time in north)
• Govind Pant given two impossible tasks
• Nizam refused (wants Marathas destroyed)
• Ghoshla didn't join
• Moneylenders refuse loans (Abdali staying)
• Everyone waiting to see who wins
• Money shortage never solved
• Rumors persist (false hope)
• Contact with Suja (too late?)
• Epic battle everyone knows is coming

The Questions:

1. Can Govind Pant do the impossible?
2. Will any allies materialize?
3. Will moneylenders change their minds?
4. Can they flip Suja?
5. Where will money come from?
6. How to fight without allies or funds?

The Trajectory:

• Allies: none materializing
• Money: drying up
• Support: everyone waiting
• Hope: based on rumors
• Reality: heading to massive battle
• Without resources
• Without allies
• Without funds
• Disaster looming

Spring 1760: It's not easy to find allies in the north. This is his first time. People earlier created these situations - Shinde, Holkar alienating everyone. So Bhau tells his people: create solutions, I don't know this place. Govind Pant Bundele gets hit with both impossible tasks: build the boat bridge AND solve the money problem. He's 60+ years old. Nana Sahib tries to get Nizam to join: "You're Mughal vassal, we're protecting Mughals, matter of honor." Nizam's response: polite decline. Why? "He was a Muslim Jihadi." Wants Marathas destroyed. Not helping. No way. Then the loan crisis: when it became apparent Abdali is staying, moneylenders declined to give big loans. The math changed. Before: Marathas vs Rohilas = sure win = safe to lend. After: Marathas vs Abdali = 50-50 = too risky. "Don't want to lose money on that gamble." Everyone waiting on the fence. Moneylenders, Rajputs, everyone. Wait and see who wins. Then join the victor. No risk. But for Marathas? The shortage of money problem was never solved. Narmada crossed easily - summer, water low, no problem. But rumors keep coming: maybe Abdali will leave, maybe no battle. Wrong. "They weren't going to get that lucky." Nana Fadnavis sends letter: we have contact with Suja. Maybe there's hope. But everyone knows: epic battle coming. Enormous violence. Enormous bloodshed. Better wait. See who survives. Then decide.